Import bookings from China to Mexico have increased dramatically – now double what they were during the same period in 2019. Import bookings to the U.S. have increased by approximately 40%.
This surge in imports into Mexico suggests a significant shift in the freight market dynamics, further indicated by the Inbound Ocean TEUs Indices (IOTI), which serve as a leading indicator of container demand and surface transportation.
Possible explanations for this surge include the theory that China and its partners might be using Mexico as a route to bypass tariffs on goods destined for the U.S. Alternatively, China's increased investment in Mexico's manufacturing sector might be leading to more raw materials being sent to Mexico, anticipating easier trade with the U.S. If true, these theories suggest a continued evolution of the North American supply chain towards more freight entering through the Southern border.
While it's challenging to determine if these imports have affected U.S. market share, especially given the ongoing shipping disruptions from the pandemic, data shows significant increases in import bookings at ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach. This trend has somewhat paralleled the increase in IOTI from China to Mexico.
Markets near the Southern border, such as Laredo, Texas, and Tucson, Arizona, have experienced rapid growth in tender volumes, indicating the growing importance of these regions in domestic transportation.
Ultimately, whether through nearshoring, tariff strategies, or other means, the Southern border is becoming increasingly crucial for domestic transportation, suggesting a shift in trade dynamics that could have significant implications for the U.S. freight market. |