The Global Port Tracker report anticipates a surge in U.S. container imports through spring 2025 as retailers frontload goods to mitigate potential disruptions from a possible East and Gulf Coast port strike and President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariff increases.

The current labor contract extension expires January 15, raising concerns over unresolved automation disputes between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX).

Retailers are accelerating imports to avoid supply chain disruptions and increased costs. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has urged both port parties to reach a deal and called for a strategic approach to tariffs to minimize economic impact.

Despite a 1.2% month-over-month dip, October container volumes rose 9.3% year-over-year, with November and December forecasted to show double-digit annual growth.

Projections for early 2025 include January imports up 12% year-over-year and March up 12.7%. However, February is expected to decline 4.1% due to Lunar New Year factory closures.

The incoming Trump administration may utilize Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, a rarely used provision, to impose tariffs on imports from countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S.

This law allows the president to unilaterally impose tariffs of up to 15% or quotas on imports without requiring investigations or procedural safeguards. Such measures can be implemented quickly but are initially limited to 150 days, with potential extensions subject to congressional approval.

While Section 122 generally mandates non-discriminatory tariffs, it permits targeting specific countries. Exceptions can be made for goods unavailable domestically at reasonable prices.

The U.S. trade deficit with China, the largest at $25.5 billion as of October, makes it a primary target for potential tariffs, aligning with President-elect Trump’s proposal for a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Other nations with significant deficits, such as Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland, Japan, Taiwan, and Germany, could also face tariffs under this provision.

The use of rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGs) is a key sticking point in contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and maritime employers at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports.

RMGs can halve labor requirements, reduce costs, and boost terminal efficiency, but their implementation requires costly terminal revamps and faces strong opposition from labor unions.

The ILA opposes their broader adoption, citing risks to jobs, national security, and the workforce’s future. Talks with the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) stalled over proposed "semi-automation" language in the new contract.

While RMGs improve safety and efficiency, converting terminals requires substantial investment, including installing tracks and reconfiguring yard layouts.

Examples include the $1.4 billion fully automated Long Beach Container Terminal and the $325 million expansion of New Jersey’s Bayonne terminal

Despite challenges, RMGs are seen as essential for high-volume, space-constrained ports aiming to maximize capacity.